New vehicle sales in the United States are poised to experience a significant uptick in August, benefitting from improved vehicle supply conditions and robust consumer demand for personal transportation, according to a report released by industry consultants on Thursday.
The joint report by J.D. Power and GlobalData forecasts that total U.S. new vehicle sales, encompassing both retail and non-retail transactions, will likely reach approximately 1,354,600 units in August. This projection represents a notable 15.4% surge compared to the same period last year.
Enhanced Supply and Improved Inventory Levels
Thomas King, President of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, highlighted the impact of improved inventory levels on the sales figures. King stated, “Retailers continue to sell vehicles before they physically arrive at the dealership. However, with increased inventory levels, more shoppers are now able to purchase vehicles from dealer lots.”
Retail inventories are anticipated to witness a substantial 48.4% increase in August compared to the previous year. This expansion in inventory, however, could potentially lead to a dip in dealers’ profits, particularly amidst the backdrop of elevated interest rates that continue to exert pressure.
Consumer Spending and Transaction Trends
The report further predicts that consumers are likely to spend a record-breaking $47.8 billion on new vehicles during August, marking a 10.5% increase from the previous year. This robust spending is driven by the strong demand for personal vehicles.
However, the study suggests that the average transaction prices for new vehicles might experience a marginal decline of 1.2% compared to the previous year. This trend could be attributed to the increased sales of smaller vehicle segments, which inherently carry lower transaction prices.
Global Auto Sales Projections
The global automotive sales landscape is also discussed in the report. The anticipated global sales for the year 2023 have been revised upwards to reach 86.8 million units, up from the previous estimate of 86.4 million units. The revision reflects ongoing improvements in supply chains, bolstering the overall industry outlook.
Looking ahead to September, Thomas King emphasized the potential impact of any work stoppages at automakers on production. He stated, “A disruption in production could create more asymmetry in the market and potentially extend the overall tight supply situation currently in place.”
As the automotive industry navigates these dynamic conditions, the report projects that global sales of light vehicles for the year 2024 are expected to reach 90.2 million units, highlighting the continued growth trajectory for the sector.