Ride-hailing giant Uber has expressed optimism about robust demand during the upcoming holiday quarter, anticipating profits that could surpass analyst expectations. The company faced growth challenges in the third quarter due to changes in revenue recognition procedures, which led to revenue falling short of third-quarter predictions. This shift in accounting practices affected growth rates for both Uber’s ride-hailing and food-delivery services, causing an eight-percentage-point decrease in growth.
Competitive landscape and price cuts
Uber continues to face stiff competition from rivals like Lyft, which has strategically reduced fares to attract more customers. This move by Lyft is in response to growing concerns about the impact of rising inflation on the demand for ride-sharing services. Despite these challenges, Uber’s CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi, maintains an optimistic outlook. He noted that “consumer demand on our platform remains healthy” as they enter the busiest period of the year.
Solid performance in Q4
Uber’s positive momentum is expected to continue into the fourth quarter, with all-time highs recorded in October for both overall trips and gross bookings. This strength extends across Uber’s mobility and delivery segments. The company anticipates that its fourth-quarter adjusted core profit, a pivotal profitability metric, will fall between USD 1.18 billion and USD 1.24 billion, surpassing earlier estimates of USD 1.15 billion.
Strong gross bookings forecast
Gross bookings, representing the total dollar value generated from Uber’s services, are predicted to range from USD 36.5 billion to USD 37.5 billion, exceeding the previous expectations of USD 36.31 billion. Uber’s robust driver supply, with a record 6.5 million active drivers in the third quarter, positions the company favorably to achieve strong results.
Market sentiment and Lyft earnings
Analysts believe that Uber’s favorable results are further bolstered by the persistent strength of driver supply during the third quarter. Optimism regarding travel demand during the holiday season, a crucial period for various industries, will also benefit Lyft, Uber’s competitor, which is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday.
Third-quarter performance and market response
In the third quarter, Uber experienced its slowest revenue growth since 2021, generating USD 9.29 billion, which fell short of the anticipated USD 9.52 billion. Despite this, the company’s adjusted core profit of USD 1.09 billion exceeded the projected USD 1.02 billion. However, net earnings per share fell short of estimates by 2 cents. Uber’s shares exhibited volatility in premarket trading but eventually rose more than 2%, reflecting market confidence in the company’s ability to navigate current challenges and seize opportunities in the upcoming holiday season.