Tesla is expected to post a record result in the fourth quarter for its electric vehicle (EV) deliveries, likely short of an ambitious 2 million annual internal target that CEO Elon Musk had set at the beginning of the year. The company has likely already delivered 1.82 million vehicles globally in 2023, up 37% from 2022, with about 473,000 units in the fourth quarter, according to 14 analysts polled by LSEG. The EV maker is expected to report its quarterly deliveries and production result early next week.
The deficit in the sales figure could come due to a price war and slowing EV demand which has even prompted automakers like Ford Motor to pull back on their electrification plans. This would leave Tesla as the undisputed leader in the EV space in the United States while helping its stock more than double this year. Slow sales led Tesla to leverage its industry-leading margins and slash prices of its four car models globally this year, with a focus on China, where the company has lost market share to locals including BYD.
While Musk had touted a potential 2 million deliveries this year, as recently as October, he warned that higher borrowing costs were pressuring demand. However, the fourth quarter is expected to be stronger than others. “The fourth quarter is typically the strongest of the year in terms of deliveries for Tesla, we’re expecting that to be the case again this year,” said Garrett Nelson, senior analyst at CFRA Research told Reuters.
Tesla made a year-end sales push by increasing discounts on its key models with an aim to achieve a 50% average annual growth rate over multiple years. However, in 2024, the EV maker will have to contend with the loss of federal tax credits for some of its cars in the United States as well as in Germany, where the government is prematurely ending its EV subsidy program. This may force the company to add more price cuts next year. A silver lining is that interest rates and battery ingredient costs are expected to ease.