In a move aimed at stabilising oil prices and managing global supply, OPEC+ has announced its decision to extend the current output cuts until the end of 2025. The group, comprising major oil-producing nations, had previously implemented significant reductions in oil production to counterbalance the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and fluctuating demand.
The decision, reached during a recent meeting, involves extending the existing cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of 2025. Additionally, OPEC+ agreed to prolong the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd by eight member countries until the end of September 2024. From October 2024 to September 2025, these voluntary cuts will be gradually phased out.
Analysts and market watchers have expressed varying opinions on the potential implications of this move. While some view it as a slightly bearish signal, as the market had anticipated an earlier unwinding of the cuts, others believe it reflects OPEC+’s commitment to maintaining stable oil prices and managing global supply effectively.
Vandana Hari, the founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights, commented, “Overall, I think the decision is slightly bearish, as the market was not expecting OPEC+ to start unwinding the cuts in the fourth quarter.” However, she acknowledged that investors might need time to analyse the details and assess the potential impact on production levels.
Goldman Sachs analysts echoed a similar sentiment, stating that the meeting was viewed as bearish despite the extension of production cuts. They highlighted that eight OPEC+ countries had already signalled plans to gradually phase out the 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts over the October 2024 to September 2025 period.
“The communication of a surprisingly detailed default plan to unwind extra cuts makes it harder to maintain low production if the market turns out softer than bullish OPEC expectations,” the analysts said, adding that the gradual unwind reflects a desire among several members to bring back production given their high spare capacity.
Despite the mixed reactions, OPEC+ remains committed to managing global oil supply and maintaining price stability. The group’s decisions are closely watched by energy markets, as they have a significant impact on the global economy and energy sector.
As the world navigates the complexities of energy demand, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainties, OPEC+’s role in coordinating production levels among its member nations continues to be a crucial factor influencing the dynamics of the oil market.