The global oil market witnessed a sustained upward momentum as crude prices climbed higher on Tuesday, building upon the previous day’s rally. Brent crude futures rose by 28 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 81.91 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 31 cents, or 0.4%, to reach USD 78.05.
The surge in oil prices can be attributed to two key factors: the anticipation of rising fuel demand during the upcoming summer months and the possibility of the United States purchasing crude oil to replenish its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Market participants are optimistic about the prospects of increased fuel consumption during the summer driving season, which typically corresponds to a spike in demand. Despite the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, the oil market remains buoyant.
Additionally, investors are closely monitoring the potential actions of the U.S. government regarding the SPR. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm recently indicated that the U.S. could accelerate the rate of replenishing the SPR once maintenance on the stockpile is completed by the end of the year. The government aims to purchase crude oil at around USD 79 per barrel, a level that WTI currently hovers near.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have also contributed to the bullish sentiment, forecasting that Brent crude prices could reach USD 86 per barrel in the third quarter. They cite solid summer transport demand as a driving force that will push the oil market into a third-quarter deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of key economic data, including the U.S. consumer price index for May and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. These events could provide insights into the central bank’s future interest rate decisions, which could influence the broader market sentiment.
Furthermore, market participants are keeping a close eye on the weekly inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration, as well as the monthly supply and demand data from various organisations, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration, OPEC, and the International Energy Agency.
As the summer driving season approaches and the potential for strategic oil purchases looms, the oil market appears to be experiencing a sustained rally, with prices reflecting the optimism surrounding rising fuel demand and potential government interventions.