Oil prices held steady on Monday, as the market weighed the impact of mixed economic data from China, the world’s largest crude importer, against expectations of a surge in demand during the summer driving season in the northern hemisphere. The global benchmark Brent crude futures inched up by 6 cents to reach USD 82.68 a barrel at 0805 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures added a modest 2 cents to settle at USD 78.47.
The Chinese economic data released on Monday painted a mixed picture of the country’s recovery. While retail sales surpassed forecasts due to a holiday boost, the overall data was largely disappointing. This lacklustre performance followed a survey released on Friday, which revealed that U.S. consumer sentiment had fallen to a seven-month low in June, further dampening market sentiment.
Despite the subdued economic indicators, both benchmarks managed to post their first weekly gain in four weeks, buoyed by a growing confidence that oil inventories are set to decline significantly as the summer season kicks off in the northern hemisphere. However, Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM noted that the recent gains were “not unreservedly convincing,” attributing the morning’s weakness to sluggish Chinese factory activity.
Last week, reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lent support to the belief that inventories would be drawn down in the second half of the year, although the two organisations differed in their assessment of the strength of oil demand growth for 2024. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG in Singapore, pointed out that while OPEC’s forecasts fueled the robust rally last week, there is some scepticism surrounding their projections due to the organisation’s vested interest in crude oil prices.
Sycamore also highlighted the potential challenges faced by the U.S. economy and consumers, stating that Friday’s soft U.S. consumer confidence numbers suggest that the resilience of the American consumer and the U.S. economy will be tested as households deplete their savings to combat higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to market concerns, as the Israeli military warned that intensified cross-border fire from Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement into Israel could trigger a serious escalation in the region.
The oil market’s reaction to these developments was somewhat muted, as key trading hubs in Singapore and other countries in the region were closed for a public holiday on Monday. This reduced trading volume may have contributed to the relatively stable prices observed despite the mixed economic signals and geopolitical risks.
As the summer driving season progresses and more economic data becomes available, oil market participants will closely monitor the interplay between demand expectations and the impact of global economic challenges on crude prices. The resilience of the U.S. consumer, the pace of China’s economic recovery, and the potential for geopolitical tensions to disrupt supply will all play a crucial role in shaping the oil market’s trajectory in the coming weeks and months.