Oil prices held steady on Monday as political uncertainty in the US and the Middle East offset the downward pressure from a stronger dollar and weak demand in China. Brent crude futures slipped 13 cents, or 0.2%, to USD 84.90 a barrel by 0640 GMT after a 37-cent decline on Friday. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dipped 6 cents, or 0.1%, to USD 82.15 a barrel.
The strengthening dollar, buoyed by the aftermath of a failed assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump, exerted pressure on oil prices. A stronger dollar typically depresses oil prices, as buyers using other currencies face higher costs for dollar-denominated crude.
“I don’t think you can ignore the uncertainty that the weekend’s assassination attempt will cast across a deeply divided country in the lead-up to the election,” noted IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.
In the Middle East, negotiations aimed at ending the Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas stalled on Saturday after three days. Despite the halt, a Hamas official indicated that discussions had not been abandoned. Tensions escalated further after an Israeli attack targeting a Hamas military leader resulted in 90 casualties on Saturday, maintaining a high geopolitical premium on oil.
Oil markets also received support from supply cuts by OPEC+, with Iraq’s oil ministry pledging to compensate for any overproduction since the start of 2024. Last week, Brent crude saw a decline of more than 1.7% after four consecutive weeks of gains, while WTI futures fell 1.1%. This drop was influenced by a decrease in China’s crude imports, countering strong summer consumption in the United States.
“While fundamentals are still supportive, there are growing demand concerns, largely emanating from China,” said ING analysts led by Warren Patterson in a note. China’s crude oil imports fell 2.3% in the first half of the year to 11.05 million barrels per day, amid weak fuel demand and reduced output from independent refiners due to low profit margins. June saw Chinese refinery crude throughput fall 3.7% year-on-year to 14.19 million barrels per day, the lowest this year, according to customs data.
China’s economic slowdown in the second quarter, driven by a prolonged property downturn and job insecurity, has heightened expectations of further stimulus from Beijing. In the United States, the active oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, dropped by one to 478 last week, marking the lowest level since December 2021, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes.