Oil prices remained relatively stable on Friday, with various factors influencing the market in opposing directions. The strength of the U.S. dollar and concerns about China’s economic performance exerted downward pressure on prices, while a tightening supply outlook provided some support.
Brent crude prices experienced a marginal decrease of 8 cents (0.1 per cent), settling at USD 85.03 per barrel by 0938 GMT. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 17 cents (0.2 per cent) to USD 82.65 per barrel.
The U.S. dollar index continued its upward trajectory for the second consecutive session, bolstered by stronger-than-anticipated data on the U.S. labour market and manufacturing earlier in the week. A stronger dollar typically dampens demand for oil among buyers holding other currencies, as it makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for them.
China, the world’s largest oil importer, has been a source of concern for the oil market. The lack of concrete stimulus measures from Chinese authorities has weighed on commodities in general, as noted by ANZ analysts. Adding to these worries, Chinese officials acknowledged on Friday that the economic goals reaffirmed at a recent key Communist Party meeting contained “many complex contradictions,” suggesting potential challenges in policy implementation for the world’s second-largest economy. China’s economic growth in the second quarter, at 4.7 per cent, fell short of expectations, further fueling concerns about the country’s oil demand.
The oil market faced additional challenges on Friday due to a global cyber outage that hampered operations for traders across various sectors, including oil, gas, power, stocks, currencies, and bonds, from London to Singapore.
In a separate incident, two large oil tankers collided and caught fire near Singapore, the world’s largest refuelling port. This event resulted in the airlift of two crew members to hospitals and the rescue of others from life rafts.
However, oil prices found some support in the previous two sessions following a U.S. government report indicating a larger-than-expected weekly decline in oil stockpiles.
Regarding production, the OPEC+ producer group is unlikely to recommend changes to the group’s output policy, including a plan to begin unwinding one layer of oil output cuts from October, according to three sources who spoke to Reuters.
Looking ahead, BNP Paribas analyst Aldo Spanjer predicts that oil market balances will tighten in the third quarter due to continued OPEC restraint and seasonal demand increases. However, he anticipates a weakening in the fourth quarter as additional supplies come online from OPEC+ and the United States.
This complex interplay of factors illustrates the delicate balance in the global oil market, with various economic, geopolitical, and industry-specific elements influencing price movements and market sentiment.