Oil prices stabilised on Wednesday after a sharp decline in the previous session, with market dynamics driven by OPEC+ supply cuts and persistent uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. This followed a drop of over 4% on Tuesday, which brought prices to their lowest levels since early October due to concerns about weaker demand and easing fears of supply disruptions.
By 0800 GMT, Brent crude futures rose by 22 cents, or 0.3%, to USD 74.47 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 28 cents, or 0.4%, to USD 70.86 per barrel. The slight recovery came after reports that Israel would not target Iranian nuclear and oil facilities, alleviating immediate fears of a regional escalation that could disrupt supplies.
Despite the brief stabilisation, concerns over the conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah continue to loom over the market, keeping traders on edge. The ongoing OPEC+ supply cuts, scheduled to remain in place until December, have also provided some support to prices. Analysts expect tighter supply conditions as the year-end approaches, with healthy consumption readings likely maintaining pressure on the market.
“The end of the current year could actually turn out to be tightish due to healthy consumption readings and OPEC+ constraints,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at oil broker PVM. However, Varga noted that 2025 is expected to be better supplied than 2024, potentially leading to downward pressure on oil prices in the long term.
On the demand side, both the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently downgraded their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024. The adjustments were largely driven by weaker consumption in China, where economic stimulus efforts have so far failed to lift oil prices. Local media reported that China might raise an additional 6 trillion yuan (USD 850 billion) through special treasury bonds over the next three years to stimulate its economy.
The market now awaits the latest US oil inventory data. The American Petroleum Institute’s report is due on Wednesday, followed by government figures on Thursday, delayed by a federal holiday. Analysts polled by Reuters expect a rise in crude stockpiles of about 1.8 million barrels for the week ending October 11.