Oil markets experienced a tumultuous week, with prices ultimately trending towards their first weekly gain in a month, despite a slight dip on Friday. The conflicting forces of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates and optimistic forecasts for global crude and fuel demand in 2024 have kept market participants on their toes.
Brent crude futures slipped 72 cents, or 0.87%, to USD 82.04 a barrel at 0100 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude futures fell 79 cents, or 1%, to trade at USD 77.84 a barrel, erasing minor gains from the previous session. Despite the modest decline, the overall sentiment remains bullish, driven by positive demand projections.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand for 2024, while Goldman Sachs projected robust U.S. fuel demand this summer. These optimistic outlooks helped to offset losses from the previous week, which were triggered by OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) agreeing to gradually unwind their output cuts after September.
Further bolstering market confidence, Russia pledged to adhere to its output obligations under the OPEC+ pact, following reports that it had exceeded its quota in May. ANZ analysts noted in a client note that stricter adherence to current quotas should more than compensate for any potential increases from the group of eight under the gradual phase-out of their voluntary cuts, keeping the crude oil market well-supported over the next 18 months.
However, oil prices retreated after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady and pushed back the start of rate cuts to as late as December. Comments from Fed officials stoked concerns that economic growth could slow down, potentially dampening fuel demand.
Market participants will be closely monitoring a series of inventory reports from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, which are set to be released on Friday. These reports, according to ANZ analysts, should provide insights into any potential weakness in demand for energy and metals.
As the week comes to a close, the oil market finds itself caught between the optimism of solid demand projections and the caution induced by the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates. While the short-term fluctuations may continue, the overall trend appears to favour a weekly gain, reflecting the market’s confidence in the future of global oil consumption.
As the world continues to navigate the complexities of the post-pandemic economy, the oil market’s resilience and adaptability will be put to the test. The interplay between supply and demand, geopolitical factors, and economic indicators will shape the trajectory of oil prices in the coming weeks and months, making it crucial for market participants to remain vigilant and responsive to the ever-changing landscape.