Oil prices climbed higher on Monday, buoyed by expectations of robust summer demand and ongoing production cuts by OPEC+, although gains were tempered by increased output from other global producers and potential economic uncertainties stemming from geopolitical shifts. Brent crude futures advanced 54 cents, or 0.64%, to reach USD 85.55 per barrel by 1105 GMT. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 49 cents, or 0.6%, trading at USD 82.03.
Both benchmarks posted gains of approximately 6% in June, with Brent surpassing the USD 85 per barrel mark in recent weeks following OPEC+’s decision to extend substantial oil output reductions well into 2025. Analysts anticipate supply deficits in the third quarter as summer transportation and air-conditioning demand deplete fuel inventories.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Friday that oil production and demand for major products reached a four-month peak in April, which bolstered market sentiment and supported prices. JPMorgan analysts noted strong demand indicators, particularly in the critical US market, with peak refinery crude demand expected to persist through August.
Market stability was further underpinned by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe, as well as between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, according to IG analyst Tony Sycamore.
Traders remained vigilant for the impact of hurricanes on oil and gas production and consumption across the Americas as the Atlantic hurricane season commenced with Hurricane Beryl on Sunday. Analyst Ashley Kelty from Panmure Gordon highlighted anticipated market volatility this week, driven by electoral events in Europe and the UK, alongside concerns in the US regarding President Biden’s tenure and re-election prospects.