Global oil prices witnessed a mixed bag of fortunes on Tuesday as a confluence of factors, including a sudden halt in Libyan oil exports and escalating concerns over China’s economic health, exerted opposing pressures on the market.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, retreated by 1.2% to USD 76.62 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, which did not trade on Monday due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday, dipped by 0.3% to USD 73.30 per barrel.
The primary catalyst for the price decline was the weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released over the weekend. This data reinforced existing apprehensions about the Chinese economy’s sluggishness, which is a significant driver of global oil demand.
However, the market’s downward trajectory was somewhat mitigated by the ongoing disruptions in Libyan oil production and exports. A standoff between rival political factions in Libya has led to the closure of major oil ports and a significant reduction in output.
Analysts noted that while the Libyan supply disruptions provided a degree of support to prices, the uncertainty surrounding the duration of these outages limited the upside potential. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo observed that the market’s response to the Libyan situation was tempered by uncertainty regarding the timeline for the resumption of normal operations.
The National Oil Corporation (NOC) of Libya declared force majeure on its El Feel oilfield from September 2nd, resulting in a sharp decline in production from nearly 959,000 barrels per day (bpd) to just over 591,000 bpd. This marked a significant reduction from the peak of 1.28 million bpd recorded on July 20th.
While the Libyan supply disruptions were supporting the market, RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft cautioned that a prolonged outage could potentially push Brent prices into the mid-USD 80s, even with additional supply coming online in the fourth quarter.
Further adding to the market’s jitters were the ongoing security concerns in the Middle East. Two oil tankers were attacked in the Red Sea off Yemen on Monday, although the damage sustained was not severe. The persistent security threats in the region continue to weigh on market sentiment and contribute to price volatility.
In the meantime, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are scheduled to increase their output by 180,000 bpd in October. Despite the demand-related concerns, industry sources suggest that this planned increase is likely to proceed as scheduled.
Overall, the oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape, with competing forces of supply disruptions and demand concerns tugging at prices. The evolving situation in Libya, coupled with the uncertainties surrounding the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions, is likely to keep market participants on edge in the coming weeks.