Thin holiday trading saw oil prices fall Monday as investors await key economic data from China and the United States, the world’s top oil consumers, to gauge growth prospects for 2025.
February Brent crude eased by 8 cents to USD 74.09 and by 6 cents to USD 73.73 per barrel on March Futures. West Texas Intermediate crude futures of the U.S. slid 5 cents to USD 70.55 per barrel.
Oil prices had climbed around 1.4% last week, though it wasn’t until Thursday that they didn’t lose ground from the previous session. Also lending a hand were a bigger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories for the week ended Dec. 20, where refiners raised activity to meet higher holiday fuel demand. It was also buoyed by optimism around China’s prospects for economic growth in 2025.
Investors welcomed a record 3 trillion yuan (411 billion dollars) in special treasury bonds that Chinese authorities recently approved to stimulate economic growth next year. Despite China’s economic underperformance, global oil consumption hit a record high in 2024, and stockpiles remain low heading into 2025, Marex senior commodity strategist Ryan Fitzmaurice said. Recent stimulus measures will start to work and ‘upcoming Chinese economic data is seen improving.’ And lower interest rates in the U.S. and elsewhere should aid oil consumption further.”
In its second batch in 2025, China has given crude oil import quotas of more than 152 million metric tons to independent refiners, trade sources reported Monday. The World Bank boosted its projection for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but cautioned that it will be hit by low household and business confidence and a raft of headwinds in property.
China’s PMI factory survey results due Tuesday and the U.S. ISM manufacturing data Friday will offer more clues to investors.
In Europe, uncertainty looms as hopes for a renewed Russian gas transit deal with Ukraine fade, following comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin that no time remains to finalise an agreement this year. Analysts predict the loss of piped Russian gas will lead Europe to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to meet energy demands.