Oil prices dipped for the third time in a line as the optimism about the possibility of a ceasefire in the Middle East and rapid growth of US crude inventory and production which would be the largest oil claimer drove down the oil prices.
Ceasefire prospects in the Middle East
Brent crude futures fell by 70 cents to USD 85.63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by 75 cents to USD 81.18 per barrel. This reduction was the result of the rising hope of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas which was spearheaded by Egypt, which in turn led to resumption of talks between the two sides.
Experts argued that the incident of potential ceasefire had soothed these worries related to conflict amplification and damages caused to oil supply. On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s resolve to move forward with a military strike on the Gaza district of Rafah has brought about more uncertainty.
Rising U.S. production and inventories
Another pull factor driving down the price of oil is the increase of crude oil inventories as well as production in the U.S. Production of U.S. crude oil has undergone the biggest single-month change in the last 3-1/2 years according to the Energy Information Administration. The production reached 13.15 million barrels per day (bpd) in February this year.
Experts, however, noted that the continued evidence of the rise in fuel prices might influence the demand for crude oil negatively, especially in the upcoming driving season of the U.S., known for being a peak in gasoline demands that approximately surpass the normal levels.
OPEC’s efforts to stabilize prices
The U.S. output is expected to continue increasing, however, production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will drop by 100,000 bpd in April and will be 26.49 million bpd in total, according to Reuters survey. This lower value could be attributed to the drop in exports from the key OPEC countries like Iran, Iraq, and Nigeria, together with the ongoing non-binding supply restrictions of the wider OPEC+ coalition.
Market demand and economic factors
The issue of inflation and its influence on consumers’ spending also led to the decrease in oil prices. As evidence of growing inflationary tendencies mount, fears of weaker demand for crude oil cannot be ruled out, especially so in the wake of ever fluctuating economic instances.
Recent oil price slump is a result of a complicated mix of geopolitical developments along with supply side and economic factors. Despite hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East has having helped the market, problems brought about by increasing US production and other unresolved uncertainties are still having some effect on oil price. As stakeholders closely monitor developments in the Middle East and assess the evolving supply-demand dynamics, the future trajectory of oil prices remains subject to ongoing geopolitical tensions and market fundamentals.