Japan, a significant importer of coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), could achieve energy independence by 2060 through the expansion of solar and wind power, combined with storage batteries, according to Jarand Rystad, CEO of Rystad Energy consultancy. This shift towards renewable energy is seen as crucial for the country’s future energy security and sustainability.
Current energy landscape
Japan relies heavily on energy imports, with the Middle East, Australia, and the United States being its primary suppliers. Presently, more than 60% of Japan’s power generation comes from LNG and coal. The Japanese government aims to reduce this to under 40% by 2030. However, analysts argue that the country’s progress towards this goal has been slow.
“Japan’s mindset is that we have to import energy because we have no energy ourselves. But with the development in renewable energy technologies, I think that statement doesn’t need to be true,” Rystad told Reuters.
Future energy mix
According to Rystad, Japan can achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2060 with a diverse mix of renewable energy sources. He envisions a future where 45% of Japan’s energy comes from solar power, 30% from wind generation (led by offshore farms), 5% from hydropower, another 5% from biomass and e-fuels, and the remaining 15% from nuclear power.
“All Japan needs is to continue installing as much solar as it did in the years before 2020. From 2014, you installed between 10 and 12 gigawatts on the peak,” Rystad said.
Last year, Japan installed about 4 GW of new solar capacity, bringing its total solar capacity to 87 GW, making it the third-largest in the world behind China and the United States.
Innovative approaches to solar power
Rystad highlighted several innovative approaches to expanding solar power in Japan. One such method is integrating agriculture with solar panels. This approach, known as agrivoltaics, can provide shade for crops that prefer lower light conditions while simultaneously generating electricity. Additionally, installing solar rooftops above roads and other infrastructure can further increase solar capacity without occupying valuable land.
“The combination of offshore and onshore wind and solar, geothermal and biomass with solid backup from both battery and pumped hydro, should actually enable Japan to see self-dependency in energy in 40 years, or by 2060 even,” he said.
Challenges and opportunities
While the vision of energy independence is compelling, Japan faces several challenges in realising this goal. The transition requires significant investments in renewable energy infrastructure and technology. Additionally, integrating diverse energy sources into a stable and reliable grid poses technical challenges.
However, the potential benefits are substantial. Reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels would enhance Japan’s energy security and contribute to global efforts to combat climate change. Furthermore, developing renewable energy industries could stimulate economic growth and create jobs.
Government strategy and industry response
The Japanese government has recognised the importance of transitioning to renewable energy. However, to meet the ambitious targets, the pace of adoption needs to accelerate. Collaboration between the government, industry, and research institutions will be essential to overcome the technical and economic hurdles.
Japan’s journey towards energy independence by 2060, as outlined by Rystad Energy, presents a bold vision for the future. By leveraging advancements in renewable energy technologies and adopting innovative solutions, Japan can transform its energy landscape. This transformation not only ensures energy security but also positions Japan as a leader in the global shift towards sustainable energy.