In a week marked by fluctuating market sentiments, global oil prices are poised to close lower as concerns over demand and easing supply worries take centre stage. The oil market has been grappling with a complex interplay of economic data, geopolitical developments, and industry-specific factors, leading to a nuanced outlook for crude prices.
As of Friday morning, Brent crude futures showed a marginal increase of 16 cents, or 0.2%, reaching USD 77.38 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures edged up by 15 cents to USD 73.16. Despite these slight gains, both benchmarks are on track to end the week in negative territory, with Brent futures down approximately 3% and WTI experiencing a steeper decline of nearly 5%.
The downward trajectory in oil prices can be attributed to several key factors. Foremost among these is the recent revision of U.S. employment data, which significantly lowered the estimate of jobs added by employers in the country through March 2024. This adjustment has sparked concerns about a potential recession in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, potentially leading to reduced demand for crude oil.
However, some analysts argue that the market’s reaction to the jobs revision may be overstated. ANZ Research analysts noted, “The recent slump was driven by concerns of a hard economic landing in the U.S. However, data showed the labour market is cooling gradually instead of rapidly slowing. This was supported by signs of robust demand in the U.S.”
Adding to the complex market dynamics are developments in China, the world’s top oil importer. Recent economic indicators from the country have pointed to a struggling economy and a slowdown in oil demand from Chinese refineries. This has further contributed to the bearish sentiment in the oil market.
Geopolitical factors are also playing a significant role in shaping oil prices. A renewed push for a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has helped ease supply concerns, which had previously been a source of upward pressure on prices. U.S. and Israeli delegations have initiated a new round of meetings in Cairo to resolve differences over a truce proposal, potentially leading to increased stability in the region and reduced risk premiums on oil prices.
Despite these bearish factors, some analysts suggest that oil prices may find support in the coming weeks due to declining global inventories over the past two months. This reduction in stockpiles could potentially tighten the supply-demand balance and provide a floor for prices.
The market is also closely monitoring the next moves of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its allies. Earlier this year, the producer group announced plans to increase output in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, with prices remaining depressed, there is speculation that these plans may be delayed in an effort to support price levels.