Biplab Das 
Countries gathered at the COP28 climate conference are facing a contentious proposal calling for the formal phase-out of fossil fuels as a crucial component of the summit’s final deal to combat global warming, as revealed by a draft negotiating text. This proposition, likely to evoke heated discussions among the nearly 200 participating nations, is advocated by Western governments while encountering resistance from oil and gas-producing nations. Against the backdrop of this debate, recent research highlights a concerning surge in global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels, raising apprehensions about the efficacy of climate change mitigation efforts.
The draft agreement
The draft agreement released by the U.N. climate body puts forth the groundbreaking concept of an “orderly and just phase-out of fossil fuels.” If accepted, this proposal would signify a historic global commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, marking a pivotal moment in the fight against climate change. The potential inclusion of such language in the final agreement reflects a bold stance to address the root cause of escalating carbon emissions.
Divergent perspectives on fossil fuels
On the main stage of COP28, CEOs from major energy firms voiced their support for oil and gas, emphasizing advancements in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane. The CEOs argued for the significance of a fair energy transition, acknowledging the complexities involved. The presence of over 2,400 fossil fuel lobbyists at the summit has drawn attention, surpassing the combined representation of delegates from the ten most climate-vulnerable countries. This stark contrast underscores the conflicting interests at play in shaping global climate policies.
Climate activism and national adaptation plans
Climate activists staged protests against the fossil fuel industry’s influence at the conference, highlighting concerns about lobbying and its impact on climate policies. Meanwhile, the Marshall Islands unveiled a national plan to adapt to rising sea levels, underscoring the urgent need for concrete actions as the impacts of climate change become increasingly evident.
Negotiating text
The negotiating text for COP28’s final deal presents three options regarding fossil fuels. The first advocates for an “orderly and just phase-out,” implying a differentiated approach based on historical contributions to emissions. The second option calls for “accelerating efforts towards phasing out unabated fossil fuels.” The third option avoids any explicit mention of a phase-out. The debate over these alternatives reflects a fundamental clash of visions regarding the pace and nature of the transition away from fossil fuels.
Global players and resistance to change
Major oil and gas-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have historically resisted calls for a fossil fuel phase-out. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister firmly rejected any deal calling for a reduction in fossil fuel usage. The resistance from significant players sets the stage for intense negotiations, with the outcome likely to shape the trajectory of global efforts to combat climate change.
Rising carbon emissions
The Global Carbon Budget report reveals an alarming trend of rising carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, primarily driven by India and China. Despite efforts to combat climate change, emissions are set to reach a record high in 2023. The trajectory, influenced by factors such as increased power demand and the post-COVID-19 recovery, poses a significant challenge to achieving global climate goals.
As nations grapple with the prospect of a formal phase-out of fossil fuels, COP28 emerges as a defining moment in shaping the future of global energy. The draft agreement’s language on fossil fuels holds the key to addressing the root causes of climate change. The debates, protests, and lobbying at the summit underscore the high stakes involved. The world awaits the outcome of COP28, anticipating a landmark decision that could herald a transformative shift towards a sustainable and low-carbon future.
