According to the US Energy Information Administration, both US oil production and global oil demand are poised to break previous records this year. The agency announced on Tuesday that US oil output is anticipated to increase by approximately 310,000 barrels per day (bpd) to reach 13.24 million bpd in 2024, surpassing the previous estimate by 40,000 bpd. The projection for 2025 stands slightly lower at 13.71 million bpd, compared to the earlier forecast of 13.73 million bpd.
In line with this trend, global oil demand is expected to exceed earlier predictions, already set at record levels, as outlined in the June edition of the EIA’s short-term energy outlook. The agency forecasts a rise in world crude oil and liquid fuels consumption by 1.1 million bpd, reaching 103 million bpd in 2024, up from the previous estimate of around 102.8 million bpd. The outlook for 2025 is even higher at 104.5 million bpd, slightly surpassing the previous forecast of 104.3 million bpd.
Despite recent concerns over slowing consumption, the report offered a modestly positive outlook for oil markets due to the upward revisions in demand growth. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out the EIA’s adjustments to global oil output forecasts for this year, now expected to be around 102.6 million bpd compared to the earlier estimate of 102.8 million bpd in May. This revision was prompted by the OPEC+ producer group’s decision to increase output starting in the fourth quarter, contrary to the EIA’s previous anticipation of an earlier move.
The EIA anticipates a slower rise in OPEC+ supplies, leading to a reduction in global oil inventories through the first quarter of 2025 and exerting upward pressure on oil prices.