Oil prices fell during early Asian trading on Tuesday, as investors braced for the possibility of higher interest rates lasting longer in the United States, potentially dampening consumer and industrial demand for energy.
Brent crude futures lost 12 cents, or 0.1%, trading at USD 83.34 per barrel by 0041 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased by 8 cents, or 0.1%, to USD 79.72 per barrel.
Both benchmark prices experienced a less than 1% decline on Monday, following comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials indicating a cautious approach to interest rate cuts until further evidence of slowing inflation emerges.
“Concerns over weaker demand fueled the selling pressure as the prospect of a Fed rate cut became more distant,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson stated it was premature to determine if the inflation slowdown is “long-lasting,” while Vice Chair Michael Barr emphasised the need for restrictive policy to persist. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted it will “take a while” for the central bank to be confident that the deceleration in price growth is sustainable.
Lower interest rates typically reduce borrowing costs, potentially boosting economic growth and demand for oil. However, the prospect of higher rates for an extended period could dampen energy consumption.
According to media reports, on the supply side, global physical crude oil markets are exhibiting weakness due to soft refinery demand and ample supply potentially foreshadowing further declines for benchmark crude futures.
Interestingly, the market seemed largely unaffected by political uncertainties in two major oil-producing nations. In Iran, hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman postponed a trip to Japan due to the health condition of his father, the king.
“The death of the Iranian President and the Saudi king’s health issue don’t seem to be affecting the market much, as it is unclear whether they will have an immediate impact on energy policy,” Tazawa commented.
Investors are closely watching the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, as they prepare for a meeting on June 1 to determine output policy, including the potential extension of some members’ voluntary cuts totalling 2.2 million barrels per day.
According to sources familiar with the matter, OPEC+ could extend some voluntary output cuts if demand fails to recover, reflecting the group’s efforts to balance supply and demand in the global oil market.