Brent crude futures experienced a slight dip, extending losses from the previous session, as the market closely monitors OPEC+ deliberations regarding potential further production cuts. This development comes amid heightened uncertainty in the global oil market.
Minor decline in Brent Crude Futures
Brent crude futures saw a marginal decrease of 6 cents, amounting to 0.07%, settling at USD 81.36 as of 0400 GMT. The slip follows a 0.7% decline in the preceding session. Simultaneously, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude exhibited a 66-cent drop, equivalent to 0.86%, closing at USD 76.44, considering the U.S. public holiday on Thursday, which led to no settlement for WTI.
OPEC+ postpones meeting
OPEC+—comprising the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies—stirred market dynamics by deferring a crucial ministerial meeting to November 30. The delay ensued from challenges faced in reaching a consensus on production levels, prompting speculations about the potential extension of existing cuts.
Thanksgiving lull and Chinese outlook
Trading activity remained subdued due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, but optimism prevailed with positive indicators from China. Recent data and additional support for the beleaguered property sector in China contributed to a more positive near-term outlook for the oil market.
The recent Chinese data and fresh aid to the indebted properties can be positive for the oil market’s near-term trend.
Mixed Factors influencing market
While Chinese developments offer a short-term boost, challenges loom on the horizon. Higher U.S. crude stockpiles and weakened refining margins have the potential to dampen crude demand from U.S. refineries. ANZ analysts underscored the bearish fundamentals, citing rising U.S. oil inventories.
Long-Term outlook and non-OPEC production
Analysts project a lukewarm longer-term outlook for China, with anticipated weakening of oil demand growth to around 4% in the first half of 2024. This projection is attributed to the impact of the property sector crunch on diesel use. Additionally, non-OPEC production is poised to remain robust, with Brazil’s Petrobras planning a significant investment to boost output.
The oil market continues to navigate a complex landscape, influenced by geopolitical decisions, global economic conditions, and regional challenges. The OPEC+ meeting’s outcome remains a key determinant in shaping the trajectory of oil prices in the coming weeks.