The automotive industry in India is expected to experience a subdued trend in wholesale volumes across various segments in June 2024, primarily due to the absence of auspicious wedding dates, according to a report by Anand Rathi. Analysts anticipate a mixed performance across different vehicle categories.
Two-wheeler (2W) volumes are projected to show resilience, while passenger vehicles (PVs) and commercial vehicles (CVs) are likely to face slight declines. Tractor volumes are expected to remain relatively stable during this period.
For June, the overall scenario suggests a single-digit decline in wholesale volumes for listed two-wheeler companies. However, the sector is still on a growth trajectory, led by Honda’s performance and benefiting from a favorable base comparison to the previous year. Year-to-date (YTD) growth figures for the sector have been robust, registering a significant 15 per cent increase.
Looking ahead, industry experts are optimistic about the future across all segments, with two-wheelers expected to outperform other categories. Projections for the fiscal year 2025 (FY25) indicate anticipated growth rates of 11 per cent for two-wheelers, 5 per cent for both PVs and CVs, and 4 per cent for tractors.
This positive outlook has led to a bullish stance on the automotive sector, with key original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motors, and Mahindra & Mahindra identified as preferred picks by analysts.
In the two-wheeler segment, TVS Motors is expected to report a 3 per cent increase in volumes, while Royal Enfield may face a 16 per cent decline. Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto are likely to experience marginal declines of 5 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively. The retail market faced challenges with a month-on-month (m/m) decline of 10-15 per cent due to the lack of auspicious wedding dates.
For passenger vehicles, Mahindra & Mahindra is projected to lead with a 32 per cent rise in volumes, while market leader Maruti Suzuki is expected to maintain flat volumes. Tata Motors may witness a 5 per cent decline in volumes. Variations in blended discounts were observed month-on-month, with increases for Maruti Suzuki but reductions for Tata Motors.
Commercial vehicle volumes are anticipated to experience a slight downturn overall. VECV (Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles) is likely to achieve a 6 per cent increase, and Ashok Leyland a 4 per cent rise. However, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra are expected to see declines of 3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively.
The tractor market is forecast to show stable volumes, with both Mahindra & Mahindra and Escorts expected to report a modest one per cent increase.
These projections provide a comprehensive overview of the expected performance across various segments of the Indian automotive industry for June 2024, highlighting both challenges and opportunities in the sector.