Airbus revised its 20-year demand forecast for jetliners on Monday, citing a wave of airlines modernising their long-haul fleets and the rapid growth of air travel in Asia’s expanding economies. According to its annual report on industry trends, Airbus predicts the global fleet will more than double in size over the next two decades, reaching 48,230 planes.
The world’s largest planemaker forecasts industry-wide deliveries of 42,430 new airplanes over the next 20 years, including 41,490 passenger jets. These figures represent a 4% increase from the previous forecast.
Airbus categorises its demand forecasts into single-aisle planes, the most widely sold models, and wide-body jets used for longer trips. The report notes that improvements in the range and performance of single-aisle planes are transforming transatlantic travel by encroaching on markets traditionally served by larger aircraft. The company’s long-distance single-aisle A321XLR is expected to receive certification soon, while Boeing (BA.N) is developing a longer-range version of its 737 MAX.
Following a prolonged lull, demand for larger wide-body planes is accelerating as airlines renew their long-haul capacity. The most significant revisions in Airbus’ forecast concern the long-haul fleet, with the total wide-body demand forecast increasing by 9% to 8,920 units. This growth is driven by double-digit increases in demand from South America and North America. However, Airbus slightly reduced its forecast for the Middle East by 2%, citing reports of overcapacity in the region, which is known for its major connecting hubs.
Included in the wide-body demand forecast are 940 large freighters, marking a 2% increase from the previous report. In the busier segment for single-aisle passenger planes like the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 series, the forecast was revised up by 3% to 33,510 units.
Economic forecasts suggest that 1.7 billion people will join the middle class over the next 20 years, providing more income for air travel. “We see particularly strong growth in Asia and the Middle East, led particularly by India and China,” said Bob Lange, head of market analysis and forecasts at Airbus. “Domestic China (traffic) will overtake the US,” he added.
Data accompanying the Airbus report highlighted the increasing significance of India, now the world’s most populous nation, with the top three fastest-growing traffic flows serving the Indian subcontinent.
Despite predictions of robust post-pandemic growth in aviation, the industry faces criticism from environmental groups concerned about its climate impact. Airbus counters that the introduction of new, more efficient jets will contribute to lower emissions and complement the development of greener fuels.