The OPEC+ discussions regarding the 2024 oil policy before Thursday’s ministerial meeting were centered on the potential implementation of an additional oil supply reduction to bolster the market. However, specific details had not been finalized, according to media reports.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other OPEC+ members currently collectively produce approximately 43 million barrels per day, which accounts for over 40% of the global supply. Presently, they have implemented supply cuts amounting to around 5 million barrels per day, or roughly 5% of the global demand.
Two sources within OPEC+ revealed that the group was deliberating on a more substantial joint supply reduction in the initial quarter, although the precise duration and magnitude were not yet clearly defined. One of the sources suggested that OPEC+ might struggle to reach a consensus on this matter, implying that there was a possibility the meeting could result in the extension of the existing policy.
The Wall Street Journal stated that the potential reduction could reach 1 million bpd, a figure also reported by the Financial Times on Nov. 17. On Tuesday, sources suggested the possibility of a further delay to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies’ Thursday meeting. However, as of Wednesday evening, the meeting seemed likely to proceed as scheduled.
The meeting, originally planned for Nov. 26, was postponed. OPEC+ sources attributed this delay to a disagreement over output quotas for African producers, though it has been indicated that the group has largely resolved this issue. Discussions on African quotas take place as the United Arab Emirates, in accordance with OPEC+’s previous agreement in June, has been permitted to increase output in 2024.
Global benchmark Brent crude oil was up 1.3% and near USD 83 a barrel as of 1836 GMT on Wednesday. Prices have dropped from near USD 98 in late September, pressured by concerns about weaker economic growth and expectations of a supply surplus in 2024.
OPEC+ discussions on production quotas have historically been challenging, with the most recent example occurring at their June meeting. At this gathering, the group decided to extend existing oil output cuts through 2024 and granted a production increase for the UAE in recognition of its efforts to expand production capacity.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other OPEC+ members have collectively committed to total oil output cuts of approximately 5 million bpd, with measures being implemented since late 2022. Notably, this includes Saudi Arabia’s additional voluntary production cut of 1 million bpd, set to expire at the end of December, as well as Russia’s export cut of 300,000 bpd until year-end.